Israel-Iran conflict: If a war breaks out between Israel and Iran and the US gets actively involved, it could turn into a full-blown regional conflict, instead of just a limited war, whose reverberations will be felt across the world.
Below is an analysis of the various aspects of this situation:
1. Trigger Points
Concerns over Iran’s nuclear programme (Israel believes Iran is building a bomb)
Attack on Israel by Hezbollah or Houthi rebels (Iran-backed groups)
Attacks on Israeli targets from Syria or Iraq by Iranian militias
2. What if the US jumps into the war?
US support to Israel:
Israel will get state-of-the-art weapons, warships, and missile defense support.
Attacks from US military bases in the Middle East (such as Qatar, Bahrain, UAE)
US will also be ahead in a cyber war (cyber attack on Iran’s nuclear bases)
What will be Iran’s response?
Iran will start inciting Hezbollah (Lebanon), Houthi (Yemen), and Iraqi militias to attack Israeli and US bases.
Threat to close the Strait of Hormuz, which will affect global oil trade.
Iran will start attacking Israeli cities with long-range missiles, making the war more terrible.
3. The possibility of turning into a regional war
Syria will be involved as a route for Iran’s weapons.
Lebanon can launch rocket attacks on Israel through Hezbollah.
Saudi Arabia and, UAE indirectly support the US. This can pose a threat to Iran.
Turkey and Qatar may also play a role or try to take political advantage.
Russia and China may support Iran diplomatically, but are unlikely to get directly involved.
4. Global impact
Significant surge in oil prices (Iran is one of the world’s largest oil producers)
The global stock market is in a state of decline and economic uncertainty persists.
For countries like India, Pakistan and Bangladesh, the security of migrant workers and citizens is a threat.
Polarization in the world – West (US, Israel, NATO) vs. pro-Iran countries
5. Threat of nuclear war?
Israel is believed to have secret nuclear weapons
If Iran feels an existential threat, it can also adopt radical strategies
This can also lead the world to a third world war, if diplomacy is not done at the right time
Conclusion
“If Israel and Iran engage in a war and the US gets involved, it will no longer be a fight between just two countries.”
This can become a multi-layered regional war, which can prove to be a threat to the entire humanity.
The United Nations, India, and other neutral powers should try to find a peaceful solution in such a situation, because there is no permanent solution to war.